Then I'll get on my knees and pray, we don't get fooled again.

--The Who

Fast forward to mid-October 2004. President Bush continues to trail Democratic nominee John Kerry in the presidential election polls, not so much because Kerry has electrified the American electorate, but because he’s not Bush. Then it happens-the “October Surprise.”

The original "October Surprise" was allegedly carried out in 1980 by officials of Ronald Reagan’s presidential campaign. Iranian militants had stormed the U.S. embassy in Tehran in 1979, taking approximately 66 American hostages. President Jimmy Carter’s administration pursued the return of the hostages but had little success. Years later, former Carter administration staffer Gary Sick attributed Carter’s setback in this matter to overtures made to the Iranian government by officials of the Reagan campaign. By encouraging the Iranians to continue holding the hostages beyond the November 1980 presidential election, the Reagan supporters believed that their candidate would have a much better opportunity to unseat Carter. Whether or not Reagan’s entourage actually convinced the Iranians to withhold the release of the hostages is still rigorously disputed. What is beyond dispute, however, is that Iran released the remaining hostages on January 20, 1981, immediately after Ronald Reagan took the oath of office as the fortieth president of the United States.

So if you were Carl Rove, the president’s top political strategist, and your candidate was slipping in the polls, what reelection strategy would you be cooking up right now? Whatever his plans are, you can be sure that they call for using the power of incumbency to create a dramatic turn of events favorable to George W. Bush in the days leading up to the election. What are some of the possibilities? According to October Surprise! (www.octobersurprise.net), the top choices in their online poll (along with my comments) are:

WMDs found in Iraq
Weapons of mass destruction may yet be found. After all, rumors of WMDs being smuggled into Iraq by U.S. and British forces have been circulating on the Internet for a few months now.

U.S. pulls out of Iraq in October, leaving the UN in charge
This scenario is simple; Bush declares victory and our soldiers come home. Highly unlikely given the intransigent nature of the president.

Escalation in Israel, Iran, or North Korea. U.S. opens a new war front
Take your pick. Intense fighting breaks out between Palestinians and Israelis. Iran is accused of building nuclear weapons. North Korea tests a missile with a range capable of delivering nuclear warheads to our west coast. After much bluster and saber rattling, the mother of all preemptive strikes is initiated. And, we won’t need more ground troops from our thinly stretched armed forces; a few mini-nukes will do the trick.

Diebold Election Systems fixes the vote in battleground states
John’s Hopkins’ Information Security Institute issued a July 23, 2003 report asserting that Diebold’s voting machine software contained “stunning flaws” and that vote totals could be modified by remote access. California recently decertified all electronic touch-screen voting machines in the state and may bring criminal and civil charges against Diebold for using uncertified software. But here’s where the story really gets interesting. In a 2003 invitation to a Bush fundraiser, Diebold CEO Wally O'Dell stated, "I am committed to helping Ohio deliver its electoral votes to the president next year." O'Dell was named a pioneer by the 2004 Bush campaign, having raised at least $100,000 in campaign contributions so far.

Vote is threatened by terrorist attacks, vote suspended due to red alert
Can’t you just imagine Attorney General John Ashcroft and Homeland Security Chief Tom Ridge announcing that the alert level was being raised to orange in September? Then a red alert in October? In a 2003 interview General Tommy Franks ran the martial law flag up the pole, stating that a major terrorist attack might mean discarding the Constitution in favor of a military government. You can check out this option in an article called "When the War Hits Home: U.S. Plans for Martial Law, Tele-Governance and the Suspension of Elections" by Wayne Madsen and John Stanton at www.counterpunch.org/madsen0514.html.

Massive terrorist attack on U.S. soil
It’s likely Osama bin Laden and al Qaeda could assure the reelection of George W. Bush by carrying out another horrific attack on American soil prior to the election. Given such an incendiary action, citizens would rally round the president once again. Don’t discount this possibility too quickly because, let’s face it; bin Laden needs a fanatical foe against whom he can unite his true believers. And, similarly, Bush needs the fear that bin Laden evokes to maintain his facade as the forceful war president.

Osama bin Laden captured
This would be the pièce de résistance for the Bush administration. In fact, maybe bin Laden has already been apprehended and incarcerated. Then, at just the right moment (based on data from polling and focus groups), his capture will be revealed to the American public on prime time TV. This ploy was chosen by more than 37 percent of the 6000+ respondents in the October Surprise Poll.

You can cast your vote for the October Surprise you think is most likely at www.octobersurprise.net/poll.php. But regardless of the tactics the Bush campaign uses, they’ve already cried “wolf” too often, and George W. Bush's tenure in the White House is rapidly coming to a close. In this immensely important election year, we won’t get fooled again.